Olivier Vernon

Broncos double-digit favorites on Sunday night vs. winless, depleted Giants

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The Denver Broncos head into Sunday night with the largest spread they have had at home after a bye week in at least 25 years. The Broncos are 11.5-point favorites against the winless New York Giants with a 38.5-point total for the Week 6 Sunday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Denver is 6-1 straight-up and against the spread in post-bye week games dating back to 2010. There’s a similar long-running trend of Denver being 7-2 SU and ATS in home games following a bye week since 2003. However, this is the first time since 1996 that Denver has been a double-digit favorite in that scenario.

The Giants, which are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS, had three wide receivers, including Odell Beckham Jr., sustain season-ending injuries last week. That has left QB Eli Manning with WR Roger Lewis (15 career catches) and WR Tavarres King as his main outside targets. Slot WR Sterling Shephard (sprained ankle) could be inactive.

While team performances tend to gravitate toward the mean with time, the Giants will need to show something new – with replacement-level personnel – in order to move the ball against a Denver pass defense which allows only 6.2 yards per pass, fifth-best in the NFL.

The Broncos’ top-ranked defense, led by OLB Von Miller, is also first in run defense and has every starter healthy. While NFC teams are a combined 1-10 SU on the road against Denver since 2012, the Giants are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC.

Denver, 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS, has been quietly efficient on offense. The Broncos, with QB Trevor Siemian, are in the middle of the NFL pack in yards per pass, but they are facing a Giants secondary that is minus CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (suspension) and has also had inconsistent play from CB Eli Apple.

Denver, 7-2 ATS over its last nine home games in October, has been good at opening holes for the tandem of C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles, who are each capable of making things happen in the open field if the tackling gets sloppy. New York also won’t have DT Olivier Vernon drawing double teams up front and keeping blockers off MLB Damon Harrison.

Unless the Broncos stop themselves, they should be able to grind out a workmanlike win.

The total has gone over in three of the Giants’ last four games against the Broncos, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. The total has gone over in six of the Broncos’ last seven games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Sunday wild-card matchups: Giants, Dolphins seek underdog payouts

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The anticipated Arctic chill could be more foe than friend of Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, if their postseason track record at Lambeau Field is any indication. The Packers are listed as 4.5-point favorites against the Giants in the NFC wild-card matchup slated for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

While Green Bay is 7-2 straight-up in their last nine home outings against teams with winning records, they are also only 2-6 against the spread in their last eight playoff games as home favorites.

The Giants, who are 11-5 SU and 8-6-2 ATS, have had protracted offensive struggles over the last month, although QB Eli Manning typically gets it together for the playoffs. Wide receiver Odell Beckham should also be good for a big play, or three, against a Packers defense that allows an NFL-worst 8.1 yards per pass.

The cold weather might mandate more use of the running game, which might bode poorly for the Giants since their offensive line struggles to control the line of scrimmage.

The Packers, who are 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS, have a big X-factor with Rodgers’ ability to keep plays alive with his scrambling. While the Giants’ pass coverage is the most improved area of their team this season, it’s going to be tough to completely stymie Rodgers and the quartet of Jordy Nelson, Geromino Allison, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams.

For all their explosiveness, the Packers do have issues with dropped passes and failed red-zone visits. Cleaning that up would go a long way to preventing an upset.

Led by DE Olivier Vernon, the Giants are stout against the run. Green Bay also has an unimpressive running game.

With the weather and two pass-dependent offenses, it could be a low-scoring game. In fact, the total has gone under in five of the Giants’ last six games in the playoffs. The total has gone under in 10 of the Packers’ last 14 games at home.

In the day’s AFC wild-card matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers are listed as 10-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins, 10-6 SU and 9-6-1 ATS, are counting on backup QB and first-time playoff starter Matt Moore, whose efficiency declines markedly when he faces pressure. While RB Jay Ajayi went off for 204 yards when the teams played in south Florida in October, the Dolphins stand to encounter frigid weather and a firmer Steelers run defense.

While WR Kenny Stills and slot WR Jarvis Landry are a tough combo, Miami might be hard-pressed to extend their trend of being 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a double-digit underdog.

The Steelers, who are 11-5 SU and  9-6-1 ATS and have far better odds to win Super Bowl 51, have the triplets – QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown – together in the playoffs for the first time.

Roethlisberger was injured in that October defeat in Miami, but this time it is the Dolphins defense that is nicked up, with top CB Byron Maxwell (ankle) struggling to get healthy by game time. Strong safety Bacarri Rambo (undisclosed) is also doubtful.

The total has gone over in three of the Dolphins’ last four games against the Steelers.  The total has gone over in 22 of the Steelers’ last 28 games in January. The favored team is 3-7-2 ATS in the last three years in wild card games. Wild card games are 3-12-1 over/under in the last four years.

Texans free agent signings boost Super Bowl odds at Sportsbooks

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The Houston Texans made a splash in the NFL free agent market this week, inking quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller to rich contracts. Those moves lifted their odds to win Super Bowl 51 to 20/1 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Houston opened the offseason at a distant 50/1 despite claiming the AFC South divisional crown with a 9-7 record last year, posting seven straight-up wins in their final nine outings, including a trio of defensive gems down the stretch in which they surrendered less than eight points per game.

However, the Texans ranked in the bottom half of the league in most offensive categories this past season, an issue the club hopes it has addressed with this week’s signings.

The New York Giants have also been rewarded at the sportsbooks following a busy start to the NFL free agent frenzy, climbing from 40/1 to 33/1 on the odds at the sportsbooks. It was a lost season for New York in 2015, as the club finished at a disappointing 6-10 while surrendering a league-worst 420.3 total yards per game.

The Giants took steps to shore up their woeful defense this week, adding lineman Damon Harrison, cornerback Janoris Jenkins, and defensive end Olivier Vernon, and re-signing DE Jason Pierre-Paul.

Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans were active this week after once again producing losing seasons, but have yet to see any impact on their distant Super Bowl odds.

The Jaguars added DE Malik Johnson from the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos along with rusher Chris Ivory, who toiled for the New York Jets last season, but continue to lag in Super Bowl 51 betting with 66/1 odds.

The Titans have added center Ben Jones, receiver Rishard Matthews, and veteran pivot Matt Cassel, and re-signed tight end Craig Stevens, but have a number of defensive holes to fill, leaving them near the bottom of the NFL futures at 100/1 odds.

The top of the Super Bowl odds remains unchanged with the New England Patriots leading the way at 15/2.

Despite the current uncertainty surrounding who will be under center for the club next season, the Broncos maintain strong 10/1 odds, alongside the Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and Arizona Cardinals, followed by the Dallas Cowboys, who join the Texans at 20/1, and the Cincinnati Bengals, deadlocked with the Minnesota Vikings at 22/1.

The Indianapolis Colts have dipped to 25/1 following Houston’s surge up the odds, while the Oakland Raiders have seen their Super Bowl line rocket to 33/1 after opening back at 66/1.