Matt Moore

Sunday wild-card matchups: Giants, Dolphins seek underdog payouts

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The anticipated Arctic chill could be more foe than friend of Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, if their postseason track record at Lambeau Field is any indication. The Packers are listed as 4.5-point favorites against the Giants in the NFC wild-card matchup slated for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

While Green Bay is 7-2 straight-up in their last nine home outings against teams with winning records, they are also only 2-6 against the spread in their last eight playoff games as home favorites.

The Giants, who are 11-5 SU and 8-6-2 ATS, have had protracted offensive struggles over the last month, although QB Eli Manning typically gets it together for the playoffs. Wide receiver Odell Beckham should also be good for a big play, or three, against a Packers defense that allows an NFL-worst 8.1 yards per pass.

The cold weather might mandate more use of the running game, which might bode poorly for the Giants since their offensive line struggles to control the line of scrimmage.

The Packers, who are 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS, have a big X-factor with Rodgers’ ability to keep plays alive with his scrambling. While the Giants’ pass coverage is the most improved area of their team this season, it’s going to be tough to completely stymie Rodgers and the quartet of Jordy Nelson, Geromino Allison, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams.

For all their explosiveness, the Packers do have issues with dropped passes and failed red-zone visits. Cleaning that up would go a long way to preventing an upset.

Led by DE Olivier Vernon, the Giants are stout against the run. Green Bay also has an unimpressive running game.

With the weather and two pass-dependent offenses, it could be a low-scoring game. In fact, the total has gone under in five of the Giants’ last six games in the playoffs. The total has gone under in 10 of the Packers’ last 14 games at home.

In the day’s AFC wild-card matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers are listed as 10-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins, 10-6 SU and 9-6-1 ATS, are counting on backup QB and first-time playoff starter Matt Moore, whose efficiency declines markedly when he faces pressure. While RB Jay Ajayi went off for 204 yards when the teams played in south Florida in October, the Dolphins stand to encounter frigid weather and a firmer Steelers run defense.

While WR Kenny Stills and slot WR Jarvis Landry are a tough combo, Miami might be hard-pressed to extend their trend of being 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a double-digit underdog.

The Steelers, who are 11-5 SU and  9-6-1 ATS and have far better odds to win Super Bowl 51, have the triplets – QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown – together in the playoffs for the first time.

Roethlisberger was injured in that October defeat in Miami, but this time it is the Dolphins defense that is nicked up, with top CB Byron Maxwell (ankle) struggling to get healthy by game time. Strong safety Bacarri Rambo (undisclosed) is also doubtful.

The total has gone over in three of the Dolphins’ last four games against the Steelers.  The total has gone over in 22 of the Steelers’ last 28 games in January. The favored team is 3-7-2 ATS in the last three years in wild card games. Wild card games are 3-12-1 over/under in the last four years.

Week 16 NFL opening odds have Giants, Raiders, Steelers as favorites

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There is reason to think Eli Manning and the New York Giants will maintain their record of being a near-lock when favored by a field goal or less.

While they’re on the road, the Giants are listed as 2.5-point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Thursday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

New York is 6-1-1 against the spread in its last eight games as a favorite of three or fewer points, while the Eagles will be out to break a negative trend of being 0-4 straight-up and ATS in their last four divisional games.

Manning and WR Odell Beckham Jr. are facing an Eagles defense whose yards per pass allowed has ballooned to 7.7, 26th in the 32-team NFL. The Giants’ improving defense could fluster rookie QB Carson Wentz, whose complement of receivers might struggle with getting separation from the trio of Eli Apple, Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Elsewhere, the Oakland Raiders are 3.5-point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. Each team’s chances ride heavily on their respective quarterbacks, Andrew Luck and Derek Carr. The status of Colts RT Joe Reitz (back), who would be matched up on pass rusher extraordinaire Khalil Mack, is in doubt. The Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

The Buffalo Bills are 3.5-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins control their playoff destiny but are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against Buffalo. The Bills’ run defense is a mess and RB Jay Ajayi might be able to provide the necessary support for backup QB Matt Moore, who is coming off a four-touchdown game in Week 15.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4.5-point favorites against the Baltimore Ravens in a Christmas Day betting matchup. While Baltimore is on a 7-0 ATS streak in AFC North games, Ravens QB Joe Flacco‘s offense is more sporadic than the unit led by Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in the late afternoon.

The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by four points against the Denver Broncos in the Sunday Night Football matchup. Although the Chiefs are coming off a loss against Tennessee, they regularly disrupt quarterbacks through DE Chris Jones, OLB Dee Ford and OLB Justin Houston. Denver QB Trevor Siemian and his offensive line haven’t been able to withstand that very often this season.

And the Dallas Cowboys are favored by seven points against the Detroit Lions in the Monday Night Football matchup. Lions QB Matthew Stafford has a chance to put up some points and Detroit’s defense, which allows an average of 98.9 rushing yards, might be able to limit NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys are not only on an 0-4 ATS streak, but they are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with winning records.