Just more than a week before Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium in Houston, the New England Patriots’ triggerman is the front-runner on the MVP futures board at +160, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Ryan of the underdog Atlanta Falcons is listed at +250.
That is good value considering that the award goes to the winning QB more than half of the time and the most likely scenario for the Falcons to win is probably in a higher-scoring game.
Brady has been named MVP in three of the Patriots’ four Super Bowl victories. The Patriots’ offense-by-committee approach makes for long odds on WR Julian Edelman (+1600), RB LeGarrette Blount (+2000), WR Chris Hogan (+2500) and RB Dion Lewis (+2500).
With Patriots coach Bill Belichick having two weeks to scheme, if someone wants to play a long shot, it’s worth noting that Edelman and Lewis can both create touchdowns in multiple ways.
Falcons WR Julio Jones, at +750 on the Super Bowl betting prop to win the game MVP, has the top odds of any non-quarterback. The Falcons rotate running backs Devonta Freeman (+2500) and Tevin Coleman (+3300), although Freeman is likely a better bet since he gets more touchdown opportunities from inside the 10-yard line.
Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller‘s dominant game in Super Bowl 50 resulted in him being only the second defensive player in the last 13 years to be voted MVP. The highest defensive player on the board is Falcons DE Vic Beasley (+3300).
Atlanta’s likely only chance of containing Brady is with a four-man rush, since Brady is too good at zipping short passes when teams send extra defenders. The Patriots focus more on causing turnovers, so there is potential for a defensive player to grab the spotlight by being involved in a couple takeaways. Cornerback Logan Ryan (+5000) and CB Malcolm Butler (+6600) likely figure to be busy on Super Sunday against the Falcons’ skilled receivers.
The Patriots are listed as three-point favorites against the Falcons with a 58.5-point total.
The MVP is chosen by a fan vote during the game that counts for 20 percent of the tally and a media panel whose votes count for the other 80 percent.