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More to Sam Bradford’s struggles than it appears

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In Chip Kelly’s first season with the Philadelphia Eagles, back in 2013, Nick Foles was the toast of the league after throwing 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Foles regressed in 2014, splitting time with Mark Sanchez and throwing 10 interceptions to 13 touchdowns. That was enough for Kelly, who traded Foles to acquire Sam Bradford. Through seven starts, Bradford has just nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. What so ails the 2015 Eagles pass game, and how is it different than 2014’s struggles?

The Declining Efficiency Numbers

Touchdown and interception totals are very incomplete measures of a quarterback’s statistical production. Better numbers still tell a similar story. Two superior metrics are the simpler adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), which takes sacks, touchdowns, and interceptions into account, and the more advanced Football Outsiders’ DVOA, which adjust for down and distance and also quality of opponent. Table 1 shows the declining production of the Eagles’ quarterback over the past three seasons.

Table 1. Philadelphia Quarterback Efficiency, 2013-2015

Year QB DVOA (rank) ANY/A (rank)
2013 Foles 35.6% (2nd of 45) 9.18 (1st of 38)
2014 Foles 1.8% (20th of 44) 5.93 (20th of 34)
2015 Bradford -16.2% (25th of 32) 4.88 (31st of 33)

The More Complicated Sack Picture

One of the hidden issues Foles had in 2013 was he was sacked at a very high rate. Among the 45 passers ranked by Football Outsiders, he had the eighth-highest adjusted sack rate (ASR), which accounts for down and distance and opponent quality. He did a much better job of getting the ball out quickly last year and had lowest ASR in the league. Bradford’s 2015 performance unsurprisingly comes out between those extremes, as the Eagles rank a respectable 13th in ASR.

Keep in mind, though, the sack numbers are already accounted for in both DVOA and ANY/A. Foles’ spectacular 2013 efficiency numbers came despite the high sack rate, and he was just average in 2014 despite the extremely low sack rate. Bradford would be even worse if he were being sacked at a higher rate.

Deep Ball Struggles

Early last season, I examined Foles’ problems on deep balls — those throws more than 15 yards downfield. That has been a continuing problem area for Bradford. The Eagles currently rank 29th by DVOA on deep passes. That is actually a downgrade from last year, where they ranked 23rd.

One of the particular issues for Foles was his inconsistency. By success rate, which I used last week in covering Peyton Manning’s early struggles, Foles ranked eighth-worst among the 32 passers with the most deep attempts. Bradford is sixth-worst this year among the 32 passers with the most deep attempts.

Bradford is actually doing better than Foles on particularly deep passes, those more than 25 yards downfield, but only 3.9 percent of his throws have traveled that far compared to 11.0 percent of Foles’ 2014 attempts. Meanwhile, Bradford has been abysmal on passes between 21 and 25 yards downfield. In that interval, he is 0-17 with two interceptions and one successful play, a pass interference penalty.

Bradford’s Strength-Short Passes

Roughly half of NFL throws these days are attempted no more than five yards downfield. Bradford comes out just barely better than average on those passes. Among the 33 passers with the most attempts, he ranks just 16th. Just average, though, is a significant upgrade on 2014 Nick Foles.

Last year, among the 33 passers with at least 100 such attempts, Foles ranked 32nd in DVOA, ahead of only Josh McCown. This area more than any other might have been where Foles’ struggles precipitated his departure, and the Eagles have improved here.

Bradford’s Other Struggle: Intermediate Passes

Though Bradford has been better on short passes, he has not matched what Foles did on just slightly longer throws. Bradford has been dismal on throws 6-15 yards downfield, ranking third-worst by DVOA.

This is in sharp contrast to Foles, who perhaps surprisingly given his struggles on very short passes was the most efficient passer in the league in this area last year.

Context May Matter Most

Bradford has been worse than Foles was last year on those short-to-intermediate passes. It is worth mentioning, though, that Foles is one of those two quarterbacks who has been worse than Bradford on those passes this year. Playing for the Rams is different than playing for Chip Kelly’s Eagles.

The 2015 Eagles offensive line and especially the run game are not the 2014 or 2013 Eagles offensive line and run game. DeSean Jackson was the gamebreaker for the 2013 Eagles passing game. The fall in the deep-pass game from 2013 to 2014 was partly the result of his absence, but Jeremy Maclin was a gamebreaker in his own way. It is not clear the 2015 Eagles have any such gamebreaker. First-round pick Nelson Agholor has just eight catches. Bradford’s most efficient receiver to date by Football Outsiders’ numbers has been Miles Austin.

Perhaps the Eagles can use their bye week the Broncos did, and fix aspects of their offense that have not been working. More offensive line consistency should help. So would another player emerging as a consistent player, whether the rarely-used Austin or Agholor or anybody else, as would a more threatening run game. Like Denver, a good defense, third-best per Football Outsiders, means the offense only has to be so good. But it has to be better than it has been or it will be too late to mount a playoff push even in the NFC East.

Sunday Night Football odds: Eagles laying touchdown against Cowboys

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The fact that the Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a bye while the Dallas Cowboys had a short week to work on their road woes should tip off straight-up bettors, but the spread might be another story.

The Eagles, led by quarterback Carson Wentz, are 7-point favorites on the Sunday Night Football odds against the Cowboys with a 43.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Philadelphia is 16-3 straight-up and 12-6-1 against the spread in its last 19 games after having at least a full week off, while Dallas is 0-9 SU in its last nine games after playing the Monday prior.

Dallas carries a good head-to-head trend of being 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six road games at Philadelphia, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and is also 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games as an underdog of 6.5 or more points.

The Cowboys are 3-5 both SU and ATS after a home loss against the Houston Texans on Monday. Dallas and quarterback Dak Prescott have habitually struggled to score points on the road, and a nicked-up offensive line faces a very strong Eagles defensive line led by tackle Fletcher Cox. For all the formidability of its front four, though, the Eagles are giving up 4.5 yards per rush and Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott should find some room to the outside as both a rusher and pass receiver.

Dallas will be without wide receiver Tavon Austin (groin) and will need more out of Amari Cooper in the passing phase as the ex-Oakland Raider enters his second game for the Cowboys.

The Eagles, who are 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS and need the win to have any reasonable chance at defending their Super Bowl crown, are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over their last eight games at night. Bettors’ confidence in the Eagles’ offensive capabilities might come down to the health of right tackle Lane Johnson (knee), who is expected to play and provide resistance to the Dallas pass rush.

Quarterback Carson Wentz now has wide receiver Golden Tate, recently acquired via trade, in his arsenal against a Cowboys pass defense that allows the sixth-worst opponents’ passer rating (101.1) in the NFL.

The ground game has generated middling results for the Eagles, who are still hoping either Corey Clement or Wendell Smallwood can take a lead role. Dallas also allows the second-least yards per rush in the NFL, which is a small reason to think the Cowboys will offer some resistance by forcing Wentz into obvious passing downs.

Wentz will likely face some long-yardage scenarios, though, as the Cowboys allow the second-least yards per carry.

There are pronounced UNDER trends in this matchup. The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys’ last three games against the Eagles, with an average combined score of 30.67 points. The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys’ last eight games on the road, with an average combined score of 31.25 points. And the total has gone UNDER in eight of the Eagles’ last nine games at home, with an average combined score of 31.89 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

NFL Week 6 odds: Bengals, Eagles, Patriots are all betting favorites

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The Cincinnati Bengals usually handle struggling teams, but it’s fair to wonder if that trend will be cancelled out by their long-running difficulties against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Bengals, led by quarterback Andy Dalton, are 2.5-point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the NFL Week 6 odds with a 53-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

According to the OddsShark NFL Database, it is only the sixth time in the last 14 seasons that the AFC North-leading Bengals are favored at home against the Steelers, but they are 14-4 straight-up in their last 18 home games against teams with losing records, and are also 6-1 SU and against the spread in their last seven games.

The Steelers, 2-2-1 SU on the season, have dominated the matchup with a 16-2 SU record in their last 18 road games against the Bengals, but they are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in the early afternoon.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-point road favorites against the New York Giants  with a 43-point total for the Thursday Night Football matchup. The Eagles are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games against the Giants. The total has gone OVER in the Eagles’ last five games against the Giants, with an average combined score of 54.6. The Giants are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.

The Seattle Seahawks are 3-point favorites against the Oakland Raiders with a 48-point total in a matchup at Wembley Stadium in London. The Seahawks, who will be idle in Week 7, are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games before a bye. The Raiders are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games before a bye. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Raiders’ last 12 games, with an average combined score of 43.33.

The Chicago Bears are 3-point road favorites against the Miami Dolphins with a 42-point total. The Bears are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road against teams with winning records. The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bears’ last seven games, with an average combined score of 37.43. The Dolphins are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home after consecutive road games.

The Washington Redskins are 1-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers with a 44.5-point total. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Redskins. The Redskins are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games in Week 6. The total has gone UNDER in four of the Redskins’ last five games in the early afternoon.

The Los Angeles Rams are 7-point road favorites against the Denver Broncos with a 52.5-point total. The Rams are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the late afternoon. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Rams’ last 10 games on the road, with an average combined score of 54.5. The Broncos are 4-13 SU and 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-point road favorites against the Dallas Cowboys with a 40.5-point total. The Jaguars are 4-22 SU and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games in the late afternoon. The Cowboys are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games in the late afternoon.

The New England Patriots are 3.5-point favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs with a 59.5-point total in the Sunday Night Football matchup. The Chiefs have covered in every game so far this season and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after consecutive ATS wins. The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 14 games at night. The Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at night.

And the Green Bay Packers are 9.5-point road favorites against the San Francisco 49ers with a 46.5-point total for Monday night’s game. The 49ers are 0-14 SU and 5-9 ATS in their last 14 road games as an underdog of 7.5 or more points. The Packers are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite of 7.5 or more points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.