Broncos double-digit favorites on Sunday night vs. winless, depleted Giants

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The Denver Broncos head into Sunday night with the largest spread they have had at home after a bye week in at least 25 years. The Broncos are 11.5-point favorites against the winless New York Giants with a 38.5-point total for the Week 6 Sunday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Denver is 6-1 straight-up and against the spread in post-bye week games dating back to 2010. There’s a similar long-running trend of Denver being 7-2 SU and ATS in home games following a bye week since 2003. However, this is the first time since 1996 that Denver has been a double-digit favorite in that scenario.

The Giants, which are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS, had three wide receivers, including Odell Beckham Jr., sustain season-ending injuries last week. That has left QB Eli Manning with WR Roger Lewis (15 career catches) and WR Tavarres King as his main outside targets. Slot WR Sterling Shephard (sprained ankle) could be inactive.

While team performances tend to gravitate toward the mean with time, the Giants will need to show something new – with replacement-level personnel – in order to move the ball against a Denver pass defense which allows only 6.2 yards per pass, fifth-best in the NFL.

The Broncos’ top-ranked defense, led by OLB Von Miller, is also first in run defense and has every starter healthy. While NFC teams are a combined 1-10 SU on the road against Denver since 2012, the Giants are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC.

Denver, 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS, has been quietly efficient on offense. The Broncos, with QB Trevor Siemian, are in the middle of the NFL pack in yards per pass, but they are facing a Giants secondary that is minus CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (suspension) and has also had inconsistent play from CB Eli Apple.

Denver, 7-2 ATS over its last nine home games in October, has been good at opening holes for the tandem of C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles, who are each capable of making things happen in the open field if the tackling gets sloppy. New York also won’t have DT Olivier Vernon drawing double teams up front and keeping blockers off MLB Damon Harrison.

Unless the Broncos stop themselves, they should be able to grind out a workmanlike win.

The total has gone over in three of the Giants’ last four games against the Broncos, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. The total has gone over in six of the Broncos’ last seven games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Super Bowl LI MVP Odds: Tom Brady the betting favorite over Matt Ryan

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Tom Brady is the clear-cut Super Bowl LI MVP favorite, which serves to make the prop on Matt Ryan all the more tantalizing.

Just more than a week before Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium in Houston, the New England Patriots’ triggerman is the front-runner on the MVP futures board at +160, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Ryan of the underdog Atlanta Falcons is listed at +250.

That is good value considering that the award goes to the winning QB more than half of the time and the most likely scenario for the Falcons to win is probably in a higher-scoring game.

Brady has been named MVP in three of the Patriots’ four Super Bowl victories. The Patriots’ offense-by-committee approach makes for long odds on WR Julian Edelman (+1600), RB LeGarrette Blount (+2000), WR Chris Hogan (+2500) and RB Dion Lewis (+2500).

With Patriots coach Bill Belichick having two weeks to scheme, if someone wants to play a long shot, it’s worth noting that Edelman and Lewis can both create touchdowns in multiple ways.

Falcons WR Julio Jones, at +750 on the Super Bowl betting prop to win the game MVP, has the top odds of any non-quarterback. The Falcons rotate running backs Devonta Freeman (+2500) and Tevin Coleman (+3300), although Freeman is likely a better bet since he gets more touchdown opportunities from inside the 10-yard line.

Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller‘s dominant game in Super Bowl 50 resulted in him being only the second defensive player in the last 13 years to be voted MVP. The highest defensive player on the board is Falcons DE Vic Beasley (+3300).

Atlanta’s likely only chance of containing  Brady is with a four-man rush, since Brady is too good at zipping short passes when teams send extra defenders. The Patriots focus more on causing turnovers, so there is potential for a defensive player to grab the spotlight by being involved in a couple takeaways. Cornerback Logan Ryan (+5000) and CB Malcolm Butler (+6600) likely figure to be busy on Super Sunday against the Falcons’ skilled receivers.

The Patriots are listed as three-point favorites against the Falcons with a 58.5-point total.

The MVP is chosen by a fan vote during the game that counts for 20 percent of the tally and a media panel whose votes count for the other 80 percent.

Broncos underdogs at Chiefs for key Sunday Night Football meeting

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Young quarterback Trevor Siemian will need a lot of help if the Denver Broncos are to continue their history of success in Kansas City.

The Kansas City Chiefs are listed as 3.5-point favorites against the Broncos with a 37.5-point total in the Sunday Night Football matchup, according to sportsbooks monitored by the OddsShark.com.

The Broncos are in a virtual must-win situation as far as their playoffs hopes are concerned, but are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games against the Chiefs, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. They are also 9-3 straight-up and ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Conversely, the Chiefs are 10-2 SU and 4-8 ATS over their last 12 home games at Arrowhead Stadium.

Denver, which is 8-6 SU and ATS, has struggled to break 20 points on a consistent basis this season, since the offensive line simply hasn’t been strong enough at run blocking or keeping blitzers off Siemian. The young QB has made progress, but will have to be careful against a pass defense with an impressive 15 interceptions.

Broncos wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are also facing a respectable pass defense, led by CB Marcus Peters, that has kept teams to 7.1 yards per pass even though they have faced a string of tough offenses.

The Broncos will need to keep Chiefs OLB Dee Ford, OLB Justin Houston, and DE Dee Ford from getting to Siemian. Young running back Devontae Booker hasn’t always delivered on his potential, but he did scoot for 79 yards in the teams’ first meeting in Week 11.

Kansas City, which is 10-4 SU and 7-7 ATS, will be out to clinch a playoff berth with a win. Quarterback Alex Smith and his regular targets such as TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill and WR Jeremy Maclin will have to solve a pass defense that allows an NFL-low 183 yards per game. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz will also have to do a better job against OLB Von Miller, who had three sacks in the teams’ first meeting.

Injury issues with SS T.J. Ward (concussion protocol), DE Derek Wolfe (neck) and ILB Brandon Marshall could affect Denver’s already soft run defense, which is 29th in the NFL and has also struggled to generate turnovers. The Chiefs’ running game, with Spencer Ware as the busiest ball carrier, isn’t very efficient but it’s a sure bet coach Andy Reid won’t abandon it and let his offense become one-dimensional.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Broncos’ last 14 games with a closing total of 38 points or less.  The total has gone under in eight of the Chiefs’ last 10 games.