T.Y. Hilton

Watch Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks live on NBC

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The Seattle Seahawks host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football as both teams look to get back to .500.

Russell Wilson will be the focal point of the Seahawks offense after throwing for a career-high 373 yards and four touchdowns in a losing effort vs. the Titans in Week 3. Wilson’s ability to avoid the rush and use his legs will be on full display as Seattle’s offensive line continues to struggle.

On the defensive side, the Seahawks’ “Legion of Boom” will look to get back on track at home in a raucous environment against Colts QB Jacoby Brissett who is filling in for an injured Andrew Luck.

If the Colts have any chance to pull off the upset on the road, Brissett will have to use his legs and connect on some deep throws to T.Y. Hilton.

Football Night in America

Start time: 7:00 p.m. ET

TV channel: NBC

Live stream: NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app

Colts vs. Seahawks

Start time: 8:30 p.m. ET

TV channel: NBC

Live stream: NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app

Beckham From Right to Left

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Odell Beckham exploded onto the scene last season. His spectacular catch on Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys was his biggest highlight, but he was one of the best receivers in the NFL. Over the last nine games, he had 81 catches for 1199 yards. If he kept that up pace for an entire season, he would have set NFL records in both categories.

Heading into his second year, Beckham looked like he should be one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. Nothing fundamental changed in New York, with Ben McAdoo still calling plays and Eli Manning still throwing passes. Yet Beckham’s numbers are down, with just 24 catches for 307 yards in the first four weeks of the season. If he keeps that up for all 16 games, he would have just 29 more yards than he had in his nine-game hot streak. What has changed, and will it continue?

Fewer Opportunities Means Fewer Numbers

One thing that stands out about Beckham’s 2014 season was just how involved he was. Despite missing four games, he was targeted 130 times. That right in line with stars like Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb, who played every game.

During his hot streak, Beckham was the single most targeted receiver in the league. He was thrown 117 passes, six more than second-place Demaryius Thomas and 21 more than third-place Antonio Brown. Brown led the league in passes over the whole season, to give an idea of how extreme Beckham’s split was. His 2015 numbers were never likely to match his 2014 pace, simply because it was unlikely he would be thrown that many passes.

And through four weeks, his targets have returned to normal for a top receiver. He has 42 targets, a healthy number that ties him for 11th, in line with T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, and Julian Edelman. This gets to some of the decline in his numbers.

Beckham in 2015 v. 2014 Through the Prism of Advanced Stats

Fine, so Beckham’s raw numbers are down. By Football Outsiders’ cumulative DYAR statistic, Beckham was the sixth-most valuable receiver in the league last year. During his hot stretch when he was targeted so often, he was the most valuable receiver in the league by DYAR, ahead of Bryant, Brown, Jordy Nelson and everybody else. Without the targets, he would not have matched that ranking this year. But he could come close if he was doing the same thing on a per play basis.

He is not. His decline in his raw counting stats is mirrored by a decline in his advanced statistics. He currently ranks just 28th in DYAR. That puts him second even on his own team, behind Rueben Randle. Football Outsiders’ per-play metric DVOA put him ninth last year. This year, he is 34th among the 70 ranked receivers. What accounts for this efficiency difference?

Completions Are Good, Incompletions Are Bad

Beckham excellent last year because he caught most passes thrown his way. By Football Outsiders’ +/- statistic, which accounts for pass distance, he ranked sixth, catching 11.1 passes more than expected.

His catch rate in 2015 has fallen from 70% to just 59%. The table shows his catch percentage by pass distance for the past two seasons.

Table. Beckham Catch Percentage by Pass Distance, 2014 v. 2015

2014 Pass Yards 2015
85% <5 92%
78% 6-15 50%
47% 15+ 30%

What role change has produced this?

Moving From Right to Left

In 2014, Beckham primarily played on the right side of the field. Of his passes, 72 were marked in the play by play as either short right or deep right, versus just 36 to short left or deep left.

In 2015, those numbers have reversed. He has just 13 passes to the right side of the field, compared to 24 on the left.

This change in Beckham’s location is part of an overall shift in New York’s passing game. The Giants were right-handed in 2014. The average NFL team threw 1.05 passes to the right for every pass they threw to the left. New York threw 1.15.

Part of that was Beckham’s presence and effectiveness. As Manning’s trust in Beckham grew, the Giants became ever more right-handed. The final four weeks of the season, Manning threw 1.29 passes to the right for every pass to the left.

Beckham’s Shift in the Context of the Offense

It is easy to surmise McAdoo noticed this tendency in the offseason and was worried opposing coaches would respond by tilting their coverages to the right. Thus, he likely requested Beckham to switch sides, to create a more even-handed passing game. From that perspective, the move has worked. The Giants are actually left-handed this year, throwing 1.05 passes to the left for every to the right.

McAdoo’s move of Beckham was likely premised on having Victor Cruz to complement him. Cruz’s work tilted to the right in 2013 and again in 2014 before he was injured, creating the opening Beckham exploited. Cruz is not yet healthy, and the time frame for when he will be is still uncertain. That will take time, the same sort of time that it will likely take Beckham to become as comfortable on the left as he was on the right. When both those happen, the Giants should have a powerful and efficient passing game. Until at least one of them does, Beckham’s sophomore struggle seems likely to continue.

Injuries a factor in NFL Week 2 betting lines

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(OddsShark.com) Week 1 of the NFL season was marked by serious injuries to a number of star players that may have lasting implications for their respective teams, including the Dallas Cowboys who travel to Philadelphia on Sunday to face the division-rival Eagles as early 4-point underdogs at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Cowboys eked out a last-minute 27-26 win over the New York Giants on Sunday night, failing to cover as 7-point favorites. However, the victory came at a heavy cost, as star wide receiver Dez Bryant left the game with a broken foot that could sideline him up to two months.

Philadelphia enters Sunday afternoon’s Cowboys vs. Eagles betting matchup at Lincoln Financial Field still searching for their first win after coming up short in a 26-24 Week 1 loss to Atlanta as 3.5-point road chalk on Monday night, dropping them to 1-4 straight up and against the spread in their past five games.

Elsewhere, things keep getting worse in the nation’s capital where the Washington Redskins will be without three starters, including injured wide receiver DeSean Jackson, when they host the St. Louis Rams on Sunday afternoon as 3-point underdogs at the sportsbooks.

Jackson will be lost for about a month with a hamstring injury suffered in the Redskins’ 17-10 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 1. The SU loss drops Washington to 1-8 SU in their last nine games, 2-7 ATS.

The Rams are coming off their second straight upset victory at home over Seattle last weekend, edging the Seahawks 34-31 to end a three-game SU and ATS losing streak.

St. Louis is 2-0 SU and ATS in its last two games against the Redskins, including a 24-0 beating in Washington last season, and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against the Redskins, including three outright victories as betting underdogs.

The Indianapolis Colts could be without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton when they battle the New York Jets on Monday Night Football, pegged as 7-point favorites.

Indianapolis recorded a stunning 27-14 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, and has suffered outright losses as betting favorites in three of their last five home games against the Jets according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

In other NFL Week 2 betting action, the Bills are pegged as home underdogs for a second straight week, with the New England Patriots visiting as early 1-point favorites, while the Cleveland Browns host Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans as 2.5-point chalk, and the Green Bay Packers take on the Seahawks as 3.5-point favorites.