Beckham From Right to Left

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Odell Beckham exploded onto the scene last season. His spectacular catch on Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys was his biggest highlight, but he was one of the best receivers in the NFL. Over the last nine games, he had 81 catches for 1199 yards. If he kept that up pace for an entire season, he would have set NFL records in both categories.

Heading into his second year, Beckham looked like he should be one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. Nothing fundamental changed in New York, with Ben McAdoo still calling plays and Eli Manning still throwing passes. Yet Beckham’s numbers are down, with just 24 catches for 307 yards in the first four weeks of the season. If he keeps that up for all 16 games, he would have just 29 more yards than he had in his nine-game hot streak. What has changed, and will it continue?

Fewer Opportunities Means Fewer Numbers

One thing that stands out about Beckham’s 2014 season was just how involved he was. Despite missing four games, he was targeted 130 times. That right in line with stars like Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb, who played every game.

During his hot streak, Beckham was the single most targeted receiver in the league. He was thrown 117 passes, six more than second-place Demaryius Thomas and 21 more than third-place Antonio Brown. Brown led the league in passes over the whole season, to give an idea of how extreme Beckham’s split was. His 2015 numbers were never likely to match his 2014 pace, simply because it was unlikely he would be thrown that many passes.

And through four weeks, his targets have returned to normal for a top receiver. He has 42 targets, a healthy number that ties him for 11th, in line with T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, and Julian Edelman. This gets to some of the decline in his numbers.

Beckham in 2015 v. 2014 Through the Prism of Advanced Stats

Fine, so Beckham’s raw numbers are down. By Football Outsiders’ cumulative DYAR statistic, Beckham was the sixth-most valuable receiver in the league last year. During his hot stretch when he was targeted so often, he was the most valuable receiver in the league by DYAR, ahead of Bryant, Brown, Jordy Nelson and everybody else. Without the targets, he would not have matched that ranking this year. But he could come close if he was doing the same thing on a per play basis.

He is not. His decline in his raw counting stats is mirrored by a decline in his advanced statistics. He currently ranks just 28th in DYAR. That puts him second even on his own team, behind Rueben Randle. Football Outsiders’ per-play metric DVOA put him ninth last year. This year, he is 34th among the 70 ranked receivers. What accounts for this efficiency difference?

Completions Are Good, Incompletions Are Bad

Beckham excellent last year because he caught most passes thrown his way. By Football Outsiders’ +/- statistic, which accounts for pass distance, he ranked sixth, catching 11.1 passes more than expected.

His catch rate in 2015 has fallen from 70% to just 59%. The table shows his catch percentage by pass distance for the past two seasons.

Table. Beckham Catch Percentage by Pass Distance, 2014 v. 2015

2014 Pass Yards 2015
85% <5 92%
78% 6-15 50%
47% 15+ 30%

What role change has produced this?

Moving From Right to Left

In 2014, Beckham primarily played on the right side of the field. Of his passes, 72 were marked in the play by play as either short right or deep right, versus just 36 to short left or deep left.

In 2015, those numbers have reversed. He has just 13 passes to the right side of the field, compared to 24 on the left.

This change in Beckham’s location is part of an overall shift in New York’s passing game. The Giants were right-handed in 2014. The average NFL team threw 1.05 passes to the right for every pass they threw to the left. New York threw 1.15.

Part of that was Beckham’s presence and effectiveness. As Manning’s trust in Beckham grew, the Giants became ever more right-handed. The final four weeks of the season, Manning threw 1.29 passes to the right for every pass to the left.

Beckham’s Shift in the Context of the Offense

It is easy to surmise McAdoo noticed this tendency in the offseason and was worried opposing coaches would respond by tilting their coverages to the right. Thus, he likely requested Beckham to switch sides, to create a more even-handed passing game. From that perspective, the move has worked. The Giants are actually left-handed this year, throwing 1.05 passes to the left for every to the right.

McAdoo’s move of Beckham was likely premised on having Victor Cruz to complement him. Cruz’s work tilted to the right in 2013 and again in 2014 before he was injured, creating the opening Beckham exploited. Cruz is not yet healthy, and the time frame for when he will be is still uncertain. That will take time, the same sort of time that it will likely take Beckham to become as comfortable on the left as he was on the right. When both those happen, the Giants should have a powerful and efficient passing game. Until at least one of them does, Beckham’s sophomore struggle seems likely to continue.

Bennett doesn’t fear backlash for skipping White House trip

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HOUSTON (AP) Patriots tight end Martellus Bennett says he is not worried about upsetting team owner Robert Kraft by not attending New England’s trip to the White House as Super Bowl champions.

Bennett said after the Patriots’ 34-28 win over the Falcons on Sunday night that he’s “not going to go” to the traditional meet-and-greet with the president. It will be the first visit of a Super Bowl champion to Washington since Donald Trump was sworn into office.

Trump’s positions have alienated some athletes, which has raised questions about whether some might choose to skip the trip while the new president is in office.

But Bennett said he isn’t concerned about it and thinks the team believes “in whatever I want to do.”

Kraft is a supporter of Trump and attended a celebration dinner in Washington for him the night before his inauguration.

Patriots’ Tom Brady earns 4th Super Bowl MVP trophy with epic comeback

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HOUSTON (AP) The greatest quarterback in NFL history led the biggest Super Bowl comeback to be the MVP on Sunday night.

Tom Brady rallied New England from a 25-point third-quarter deficit for a 34-28 win over the Atlanta Falcons in the first overtime game in Super Bowl history to earn his fifth Super Bowl title and fourth MVP trophy.

“They’re all sweet,” he said. “They’re all different and this was just an incredible team and I’m just happy to be a part of it,” he said.

Brady threw touchdown passes of 5 and 6 yards in the second half and tied things at 28-28 when he connected withDanny Amendola on a 2-point conversion with 57 seconds left.

He then directed the drive in overtime which ended with a 2-yard run by James White to make the Patriots the first team to win a Super Bowl after trailing by more than 10 points.

“We all brought each other back,” he said. “We never felt out of it. It was a tough battle.”

His performance certainly wasn’t without its struggles. His incredible second half and overtime came after a first half where the Patriots managed just three points and he threw an interception which Robert Alford returned 82 yards for a touchdown. He was hurried and harassed for much of the games. The Falcons sacked him five times and hit him on another eight occasions.

He noted the beating he took when he was trying to recount the details of the comeback and couldn’t remember what the score was at one point in the rally.

“There was a lot of (stuff) that happened tonight,” he said. “I got hit pretty hard.”

His 466 yards passing are a Super Bowl record, surpassing the 414 yards Kurt Warner had 17 years ago. He also set a record for most passes completed in a Super Bowl with 43 and most attempts with 62.

He is the first to play in seven Super Bowls and the victory ties him with Charles Haley for most Super Bowl rings.

After all Brady has done in his career, was this his finest moment?

“Tom’s had a lot of great ones,” coach Bill Belichick said. “But, yeah tonight was one of them.”

It’s a triumphant end to a difficult season for Brady, who missed the first four games because of his “Deflategate” suspension and dealt with his mother Galynn Brady suffering through an undisclosed illness. The Super Bowl was the first game she’s attended all season.

“They’re all happy,” he said fighting back tears. “It’s nice to have everybody here and it’s going to be a great celebration tonight.”

He shared a quick moment with her right after the game, but was looking forward to more time with her in the upcoming days.

“It’s kind of madness after the game so I didn’t get much quality time with her but we’ll get it this week,” he said.

But he certainly wasn’t asking for sympathy for his rough road to this title though, chuckling when someone asked about the adversity the Patriots have gone through in the past couple of years.

“We’ve done pretty good over the last few years … so I don’t think anyone’s feeling bad for the Patriots,” he said. “I don’t think anyone feels bad for the Patriots.”

Brady also collected the MVP trophy in 2001, 2003 and 2014.

“It was just a lot of mental toughness by our team and we’re going to remember this one for the rest of our lives,” Brady said.

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