Beckham From Right to Left

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Odell Beckham exploded onto the scene last season. His spectacular catch on Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys was his biggest highlight, but he was one of the best receivers in the NFL. Over the last nine games, he had 81 catches for 1199 yards. If he kept that up pace for an entire season, he would have set NFL records in both categories.

Heading into his second year, Beckham looked like he should be one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. Nothing fundamental changed in New York, with Ben McAdoo still calling plays and Eli Manning still throwing passes. Yet Beckham’s numbers are down, with just 24 catches for 307 yards in the first four weeks of the season. If he keeps that up for all 16 games, he would have just 29 more yards than he had in his nine-game hot streak. What has changed, and will it continue?

Fewer Opportunities Means Fewer Numbers

One thing that stands out about Beckham’s 2014 season was just how involved he was. Despite missing four games, he was targeted 130 times. That right in line with stars like Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb, who played every game.

During his hot streak, Beckham was the single most targeted receiver in the league. He was thrown 117 passes, six more than second-place Demaryius Thomas and 21 more than third-place Antonio Brown. Brown led the league in passes over the whole season, to give an idea of how extreme Beckham’s split was. His 2015 numbers were never likely to match his 2014 pace, simply because it was unlikely he would be thrown that many passes.

And through four weeks, his targets have returned to normal for a top receiver. He has 42 targets, a healthy number that ties him for 11th, in line with T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, and Julian Edelman. This gets to some of the decline in his numbers.

Beckham in 2015 v. 2014 Through the Prism of Advanced Stats

Fine, so Beckham’s raw numbers are down. By Football Outsiders’ cumulative DYAR statistic, Beckham was the sixth-most valuable receiver in the league last year. During his hot stretch when he was targeted so often, he was the most valuable receiver in the league by DYAR, ahead of Bryant, Brown, Jordy Nelson and everybody else. Without the targets, he would not have matched that ranking this year. But he could come close if he was doing the same thing on a per play basis.

He is not. His decline in his raw counting stats is mirrored by a decline in his advanced statistics. He currently ranks just 28th in DYAR. That puts him second even on his own team, behind Rueben Randle. Football Outsiders’ per-play metric DVOA put him ninth last year. This year, he is 34th among the 70 ranked receivers. What accounts for this efficiency difference?

Completions Are Good, Incompletions Are Bad

Beckham excellent last year because he caught most passes thrown his way. By Football Outsiders’ +/- statistic, which accounts for pass distance, he ranked sixth, catching 11.1 passes more than expected.

His catch rate in 2015 has fallen from 70% to just 59%. The table shows his catch percentage by pass distance for the past two seasons.

Table. Beckham Catch Percentage by Pass Distance, 2014 v. 2015

2014 Pass Yards 2015
85% <5 92%
78% 6-15 50%
47% 15+ 30%

What role change has produced this?

Moving From Right to Left

In 2014, Beckham primarily played on the right side of the field. Of his passes, 72 were marked in the play by play as either short right or deep right, versus just 36 to short left or deep left.

In 2015, those numbers have reversed. He has just 13 passes to the right side of the field, compared to 24 on the left.

This change in Beckham’s location is part of an overall shift in New York’s passing game. The Giants were right-handed in 2014. The average NFL team threw 1.05 passes to the right for every pass they threw to the left. New York threw 1.15.

Part of that was Beckham’s presence and effectiveness. As Manning’s trust in Beckham grew, the Giants became ever more right-handed. The final four weeks of the season, Manning threw 1.29 passes to the right for every pass to the left.

Beckham’s Shift in the Context of the Offense

It is easy to surmise McAdoo noticed this tendency in the offseason and was worried opposing coaches would respond by tilting their coverages to the right. Thus, he likely requested Beckham to switch sides, to create a more even-handed passing game. From that perspective, the move has worked. The Giants are actually left-handed this year, throwing 1.05 passes to the left for every to the right.

McAdoo’s move of Beckham was likely premised on having Victor Cruz to complement him. Cruz’s work tilted to the right in 2013 and again in 2014 before he was injured, creating the opening Beckham exploited. Cruz is not yet healthy, and the time frame for when he will be is still uncertain. That will take time, the same sort of time that it will likely take Beckham to become as comfortable on the left as he was on the right. When both those happen, the Giants should have a powerful and efficient passing game. Until at least one of them does, Beckham’s sophomore struggle seems likely to continue.

Broncos double-digit favorites on Sunday night vs. winless, depleted Giants

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The Denver Broncos head into Sunday night with the largest spread they have had at home after a bye week in at least 25 years. The Broncos are 11.5-point favorites against the winless New York Giants with a 38.5-point total for the Week 6 Sunday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Denver is 6-1 straight-up and against the spread in post-bye week games dating back to 2010. There’s a similar long-running trend of Denver being 7-2 SU and ATS in home games following a bye week since 2003. However, this is the first time since 1996 that Denver has been a double-digit favorite in that scenario.

The Giants, which are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS, had three wide receivers, including Odell Beckham Jr., sustain season-ending injuries last week. That has left QB Eli Manning with WR Roger Lewis (15 career catches) and WR Tavarres King as his main outside targets. Slot WR Sterling Shephard (sprained ankle) could be inactive.

While team performances tend to gravitate toward the mean with time, the Giants will need to show something new – with replacement-level personnel – in order to move the ball against a Denver pass defense which allows only 6.2 yards per pass, fifth-best in the NFL.

The Broncos’ top-ranked defense, led by OLB Von Miller, is also first in run defense and has every starter healthy. While NFC teams are a combined 1-10 SU on the road against Denver since 2012, the Giants are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC.

Denver, 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS, has been quietly efficient on offense. The Broncos, with QB Trevor Siemian, are in the middle of the NFL pack in yards per pass, but they are facing a Giants secondary that is minus CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (suspension) and has also had inconsistent play from CB Eli Apple.

Denver, 7-2 ATS over its last nine home games in October, has been good at opening holes for the tandem of C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles, who are each capable of making things happen in the open field if the tackling gets sloppy. New York also won’t have DT Olivier Vernon drawing double teams up front and keeping blockers off MLB Damon Harrison.

Unless the Broncos stop themselves, they should be able to grind out a workmanlike win.

The total has gone over in three of the Giants’ last four games against the Broncos, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. The total has gone over in six of the Broncos’ last seven games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Watch Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks live on NBC

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The Seattle Seahawks host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football as both teams look to get back to .500.

Russell Wilson will be the focal point of the Seahawks offense after throwing for a career-high 373 yards and four touchdowns in a losing effort vs. the Titans in Week 3. Wilson’s ability to avoid the rush and use his legs will be on full display as Seattle’s offensive line continues to struggle.

On the defensive side, the Seahawks’ “Legion of Boom” will look to get back on track at home in a raucous environment against Colts QB Jacoby Brissett who is filling in for an injured Andrew Luck.

If the Colts have any chance to pull off the upset on the road, Brissett will have to use his legs and connect on some deep throws to T.Y. Hilton.

Football Night in America

Start time: 7:00 p.m. ET

TV channel: NBC

Live stream: NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app

Colts vs. Seahawks

Start time: 8:30 p.m. ET

TV channel: NBC

Live stream: NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app